Betting Lines
| Spread | HAW -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | CSUB +850 HAW -1450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HAW +15 | 163 | Lost |
| Massey | HAW -15.2 (+0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.4 (+15.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HAW -13.1 (-1.9) | 147.3 (+15.7) | 15% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HAW -10.0 (-5.0) | 147.0 (+16.0) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HAW -14.3 (-0.7) | 144.6 (+18.4) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HAW -13.3 (-1.7) | 145.4 (+17.6) | 15% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 23, 2026 | HAW 98 – 71 CSUB |
| Mar 7, 2025 | CSUB 76 – 64 HAW |
| Jan 19, 2025 | HAW 81 – 70 CSUB |
| Mar 10, 2024 | HAW 74 – 57 CSUB |
| Jan 5, 2024 | HAW 78 – 67 CSUB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSUB | HAW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-24 | 24-9 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 14-6 |
| Home | 6-11 | 16-3 |
| Away | 1-13 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L15 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 78.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 83.4 | 71.2 |
| Massey | -11.2 (#326) | 6.9 (#86) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.45 (#295) | 0.88 (#93) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.25 (#313) | 1.01 (#95) |
| RPI | 0.405 (#339) | 0.524 (#122) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSUB | HAW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 30.3% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 39.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.2% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 30.6% | 30.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 44.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 63.6% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.6% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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