Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | SAC +170 MTST -163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +7 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | MTST -0.8 (-6.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.1 (+8.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -0.4 (-6.6) | 131.0 (+6.0) | 39% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -1.6 (-5.4) | 130.8 (+6.2) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAC -0.0 (-7.0) | 131.4 (+5.6) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -0.5 (-6.5) | 132.4 (+4.6) | 42% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | MTST 82 – 61 SAC |
| Jan 30, 2026 | SAC 83 – 80 MTST |
| Mar 1, 2025 | MTST 87 – 60 SAC |
| Jan 31, 2025 | MTST 70 – 58 SAC |
| Mar 13, 2024 | MTST 74 – 71 SAC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAC | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 15-3 |
| Home | 9-4 | 12-1 |
| Away | 5-10 | 10-5 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.2 | 67.2 |
| Massey | -0.5 (#178) | 3.8 (#112) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.03 (#173) | 0.53 (#128) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.03 (#168) | 0.73 (#124) |
| RPI | 0.502 (#170) | 0.532 (#121) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAC | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.2% | 28.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.0% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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