Betting Lines
| Spread | KC -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | KC -250 DEN +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | KC +10 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | KC -6.4 (+3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.0 (-9.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | KC -3.7 (+6.3) | 139.5 (-9.5) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | KC -4.2 (+5.8) | 136.7 (-6.7) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | KC -4.0 (+6.0) | 138.9 (-8.9) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | KC -4.5 (+5.5) | 140.5 (-10.5) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | DEN 69 – 61 KC |
| Dec 31, 2025 | DEN 87 – 74 KC |
| Feb 28, 2025 | KC 64 – 56 DEN |
| Jan 31, 2025 | DEN 69 – 68 KC |
| Mar 10, 2024 | DEN 61 – 60 KC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KC | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 6-12 |
| Home | 6-8 | 9-5 |
| Away | 3-11 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.0 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 75.3 |
| Massey | -4.2 (#242) | -7.1 (#296) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.68 (#243) | -0.63 (#237) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.99 (#254) | -1.14 (#267) |
| RPI | 0.471 (#242) | 0.446 (#278) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KC | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.1% | 48.8% |
| 3PT% | 27.7% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.68 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.2% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 36.5% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 29.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 53.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.0% | 20.2% |
Game Analysis
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