Betting Lines
| Spread | MEM -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | TLSA +550 MEM -1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TLSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MEM +12 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | MEM -12.4 (+0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.9 (-8.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MEM -11.4 (-0.6) | 155.7 (-7.7) | 15% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MEM -11.8 (-0.2) | 158.8 (-10.8) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MEM -11.4 (-0.6) | 156.9 (-8.9) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MEM -11.6 (-0.4) | 155.2 (-7.2) | 15% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | TLSA 83 – 66 MEM |
| Feb 6, 2025 | MEM 83 – 71 TLSA |
| Jan 5, 2024 | MEM 78 – 75 TLSA |
| Jan 23, 2022 | MEM 83 – 81 TLSA |
| Jan 5, 2022 | MEM 67 – 64 TLSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TLSA | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-25 | 26-9 |
| Conference | 1-17 | 13-5 |
| Home | 4-10 | 13-2 |
| Away | 0-12 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L12 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.3 | 79.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.4 | 71.8 |
| Massey | -5.8 (#272) | 10.1 (#45) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.45 (#302) | 2.08 (#35) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.51 (#289) | 2.67 (#28) |
| RPI | 0.416 (#323) | 0.613 (#24) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TLSA | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 15.3% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 45.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 66.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 28.0% |
Game Analysis
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