Betting Lines
| Spread | MEM -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | MEM -2500 TLSA +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MEM +12 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | MEM -22.4 (-10.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.8 (+4.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MEM -16.9 (-4.9) | 145.8 (+8.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MEM -16.2 (-4.2) | 147.5 (+6.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MEM -16.9 (-4.9) | 147.0 (+7.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MEM -18.2 (-6.2) | 145.9 (+8.1) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | TLSA 83 – 66 MEM |
| Jan 5, 2024 | MEM 78 – 75 TLSA |
| Jan 29, 2023 | MEM 80 – 68 TLSA |
| Jan 23, 2022 | MEM 83 – 81 TLSA |
| Jan 5, 2022 | MEM 67 – 64 TLSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MEM | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 6-12 |
| Home | 13-2 | 8-9 |
| Away | 11-2 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.9 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 74.2 |
| Massey | 12.5 (#45) | -6.8 (#274) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.23 (#11) | -1.45 (#299) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.79 (#18) | -1.63 (#287) |
| RPI | 0.667 (#3) | 0.399 (#336) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MEM | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 40.1% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.7% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 29.7% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 65.6% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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