Betting Lines
| Spread | MEM -5.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TLSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MEM +2 | 164 | Lost |
| Massey | MEM -4.9 (+2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.0 (+19.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MEM -4.0 (+2.0) | 143.5 (+20.5) | 34% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MEM -5.4 (+3.4) | 143.0 (+21.0) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MEM -4.1 (+2.1) | 144.2 (+19.8) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MEM -4.4 (+2.4) | 144.0 (+20.0) | 32% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | TLSA 83 – 66 MEM |
| Feb 6, 2025 | MEM 83 – 71 TLSA |
| Jan 5, 2024 | MEM 78 – 75 TLSA |
| Jan 29, 2023 | MEM 80 – 68 TLSA |
| Jan 5, 2022 | MEM 67 – 64 TLSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TLSA | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 13-5 |
| Home | 8-8 | 13-2 |
| Away | 1-10 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 68.3 |
| Massey | 0.7 (#152) | 9.0 (#53) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.56 (#229) | 0.79 (#110) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.31 (#196) | 1.69 (#77) |
| RPI | 0.460 (#238) | 0.538 (#104) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TLSA | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 38.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 23.8% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 37.7% |
| FT Rate | 17.9% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.3% | 21.9% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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