Betting Lines
| Spread | MEM -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | TLSA +400 MEM -450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TLSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MEM +3 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | MEM -5.5 (+2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.8 (+3.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MEM -5.5 (+2.5) | 145.8 (+7.2) | 29% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MEM -6.4 (+3.4) | 152.2 (+0.8) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MEM -6.1 (+3.1) | 149.9 (+3.1) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MEM -6.0 (+3.0) | 146.5 (+6.5) | 26% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | TLSA 83 – 66 MEM |
| Feb 6, 2025 | MEM 83 – 71 TLSA |
| Jan 29, 2023 | MEM 80 – 68 TLSA |
| Jan 23, 2022 | MEM 83 – 81 TLSA |
| Jan 5, 2022 | MEM 67 – 64 TLSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TLSA | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-15 | 22-10 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 11-7 |
| Home | 14-4 | 13-2 |
| Away | 2-9 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.3 | 80.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 75.8 |
| Massey | -0.0 (#165) | 9.9 (#54) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.08 (#184) | 3.36 (#8) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.29 (#198) | 3.93 (#15) |
| RPI | 0.468 (#236) | 0.669 (#4) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TLSA | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 34.7% | 29.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.9% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.2% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 66.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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