Betting Lines
| Spread | MEM -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MEM +3 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | MEM -16.7 (-13.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.5 (-16.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MEM -12.5 (-9.5) | 146.8 (-15.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MEM -12.7 (-9.7) | 141.7 (-10.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MEM -11.2 (-8.2) | 145.8 (-14.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MEM -12.9 (-9.9) | 145.9 (-14.9) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | TLSA 83 – 66 MEM |
| Feb 6, 2025 | MEM 83 – 71 TLSA |
| Jan 5, 2024 | MEM 78 – 75 TLSA |
| Jan 29, 2023 | MEM 80 – 68 TLSA |
| Jan 23, 2022 | MEM 83 – 81 TLSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MEM | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 4-14 |
| Home | 13-2 | 8-8 |
| Away | 5-6 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 11.6 (#29) | -0.7 (#189) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.09 (#89) | -0.47 (#224) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.42 (#50) | -0.26 (#198) |
| RPI | 0.560 (#79) | 0.466 (#237) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MEM | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 30.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 24.3% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 38.8% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 30.0% | 17.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.6% | 54.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.4% | 23.7% |
| DRB% | 66.8% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 17.4% |
Game Analysis
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