Betting Lines
| Spread | TLSA -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | TLSA -265 MEM +215 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TLSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TLSA +17 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | TLSA -9.4 (+7.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.1 (-7.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TLSA -8.7 (+8.3) | 145.8 (+3.2) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TLSA -6.3 (+10.7) | 146.9 (+2.1) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TLSA -8.7 (+8.3) | 147.7 (+1.3) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TLSA -8.1 (+8.9) | 147.1 (+1.9) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 6, 2025 | MEM 83 – 71 TLSA |
| Jan 5, 2024 | MEM 78 – 75 TLSA |
| Jan 29, 2023 | MEM 80 – 68 TLSA |
| Jan 23, 2022 | MEM 83 – 81 TLSA |
| Jan 5, 2022 | MEM 67 – 64 TLSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TLSA | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-8 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 8-10 |
| Home | 16-2 | 10-6 |
| Away | 8-4 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.9 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 76.7 |
| Massey | 11.4 (#50) | 5.3 (#101) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.53 (#70) | 0.74 (#105) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.84 (#75) | 1.01 (#102) |
| RPI | 0.576 (#59) | 0.523 (#125) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TLSA | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.2% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 41.2% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.3% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 36.0% |
| FT Rate | 34.6% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 64.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 27.3% |
Game Analysis
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