Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | FRES +155 USU -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +17 | 123 | Lost |
| Massey | USU -6.2 (-10.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.1 (-14.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -5.8 (-11.2) | 135.7 (-12.7) | 31% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -5.1 (-11.9) | 131.0 (-8.0) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -6.1 (-10.9) | 137.6 (-14.6) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -6.3 (-10.7) | 139.1 (-16.1) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | USU 91 – 78 FRES |
| Dec 31, 2025 | USU 72 – 63 FRES |
| Feb 8, 2025 | USU 89 – 81 FRES |
| Jan 5, 2025 | USU 89 – 83 FRES |
| Mar 14, 2024 | USU 87 – 75 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FRES | USU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 26-9 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 13-5 |
| Home | 7-7 | 14-2 |
| Away | 4-9 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.5 | 77.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.0 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 0.7 (#161) | 10.4 (#42) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.29 (#202) | 1.95 (#41) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.04 (#178) | 2.56 (#35) |
| RPI | 0.488 (#200) | 0.615 (#21) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FRES | USU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 28.6% | 40.9% |
| REB / G | 31.1 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 56.6% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 24.5% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 18.9% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 75.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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