Betting Lines
| Spread | VAL -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | VAL -450 EVAN +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAL +12 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | VAL -9.1 (+2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.5 (+11.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAL -7.0 (+5.0) | 142.9 (+7.1) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAL -7.5 (+4.5) | 139.9 (+10.1) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAL -7.8 (+4.2) | 139.8 (+10.2) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VAL -8.2 (+3.8) | 139.9 (+10.1) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | EVAN 80 – 79 VAL |
| Feb 7, 2026 | VAL 70 – 63 EVAN |
| Feb 17, 2025 | EVAN 79 – 69 VAL |
| Jan 25, 2025 | EVAN 78 – 68 VAL |
| Feb 3, 2024 | EVAN 63 – 62 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 5-27 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 1-19 |
| Home | 8-7 | 3-10 |
| Away | 2-12 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L5 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.1 | 62.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.0 | 76.0 |
| Massey | -6.9 (#292) | -12.5 (#348) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.93 (#269) | -1.84 (#328) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.21 (#271) | -2.36 (#330) |
| RPI | 0.437 (#294) | 0.413 (#326) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 29.9% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 45.2% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 22.7% | 21.7% |
| FT Rate | 19.6% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 54.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 75.5% | 75.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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