Betting Lines
| Spread | SF -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | USD +170 SF -163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SF +13 | 175 | Lost |
| Massey | SF -2.4 (-10.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.4 (+16.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SF -2.1 (-10.9) | 156.0 (+19.0) | 42% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SF -4.1 (-8.9) | 154.0 (+21.0) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SF -1.7 (-11.3) | 158.7 (+16.3) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SF -2.2 (-10.8) | 158.5 (+16.5) | 42% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | SF 92 – 79 USD |
| Jan 3, 2026 | SF 74 – 64 USD |
| Feb 16, 2025 | SF 84 – 61 USD |
| Jan 26, 2025 | SF 81 – 69 USD |
| Feb 2, 2024 | SF 95 – 79 USD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USD | SF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 4-12 | 7-9 |
| Home | 8-9 | 11-6 |
| Away | 3-8 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.3 | 75.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.6 | 73.5 |
| Massey | -1.6 (#203) | 4.3 (#108) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.58 (#232) | 0.62 (#119) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.30 (#195) | 0.80 (#119) |
| RPI | 0.472 (#238) | 0.512 (#157) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USD | SF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.0% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 75.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 26.0% |
Game Analysis
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