The tide is high, but I'm holding on. "The Tide is High" - Blondie
Western Athletic Conference · Wisdom Gym · January 29, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread GCU -2.5 Home covered
O/U 134.5 Over
Money TAR +138 / GCU -138
Model Predictions
Spread Total TAR win
Actual TAR +19 143 Won
Massey GCU -3.0 (+22.0)
Massey Totals 135.2 (+7.8)
Bradley-Terry 51%
Weighted B-T 47%
Baseline ML GCU -2.6 (+21.6) 139.7 (+3.3) 39%
Baseline Plus ML GCU -2.6 (+21.6) 138.6 (+4.4) 44%
Efficiency Plus ML GCU -3.5 (+22.5) 137.6 (+5.4) 43%
Baseline Tuned ML GCU -2.0 (+21.0) 139.2 (+3.8) 42%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 14, 2025 GCU 6460 TAR
Jan 19, 2025 GCU 8864 TAR
Feb 23, 2024 TAR 7774 GCU
Jan 14, 2024 GCU 7448 TAR
Jan 16, 2022 GCU 8059 TAR

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings TAR GCU
Overall 17-17 24-12
Conference 9-9 11-7
Home 13-2 14-4
Away 2-12 6-5
Neutral 3-3 5-3
Last 5 3-2 3-2
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 67.6 72.2
Avg Pts Against 70.1 69.1
Massey -1.8 (#213) 4.6 (#100)
Bradley-Terry 0.16 (#160) 0.77 (#105)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.09 (#163) 0.94 (#108)
RPI 0.514 (#152) 0.540 (#100)
Shooting & Four Factors TAR GCU
FG% 42.7% 43.1%
3PT% 30.9% 34.3%
REB / G 31.0 37.4
OREB / G 9.3 11.5
AST / TO 0.79 0.91
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 46.3% 50.0%
TOV% 18.4% 19.1%
ORB% 27.2% 33.6%
FT Rate 31.9% 26.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 51.9% 46.3%
Opp TOV% 23.2% 16.7%
DRB% 67.9% 69.6%
Opp FT Rate 32.4% 20.8%

Game Analysis

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