Betting Lines
| Spread | GCU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | TAR +138 GCU -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TAR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TAR +19 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | GCU -3.0 (+22.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.2 (+7.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GCU -3.5 (+22.5) | 137.6 (+5.4) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GCU -2.0 (+21.0) | 139.2 (+3.8) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GCU -2.6 (+21.6) | 139.7 (+3.3) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GCU -2.6 (+21.6) | 138.6 (+4.4) | 44% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2025 | GCU 64 – 60 TAR |
| Jan 19, 2025 | GCU 88 – 64 TAR |
| Feb 23, 2024 | TAR 77 – 74 GCU |
| Jan 14, 2024 | GCU 74 – 48 TAR |
| Jan 16, 2022 | GCU 80 – 59 TAR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TAR | GCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 11-7 |
| Home | 13-2 | 14-4 |
| Away | 2-12 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 69.1 |
| Massey | -1.8 (#213) | 4.6 (#100) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.16 (#160) | 0.77 (#105) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.09 (#163) | 0.94 (#108) |
| RPI | 0.514 (#152) | 0.540 (#100) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TAR | GCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.3% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 33.6% |
| FT Rate | 31.9% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 46.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.2% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.4% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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