Betting Lines
| Spread | GCU -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | TAR +700 GCU -1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TAR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GCU +4 | 124 | Lost |
| Massey | GCU -12.7 (+8.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.4 (-12.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GCU -11.3 (+7.3) | 134.7 (-10.7) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GCU -11.1 (+7.1) | 135.2 (-11.2) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GCU -10.4 (+6.4) | 135.8 (-11.8) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GCU -11.1 (+7.1) | 139.8 (-15.8) | 16% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 19, 2025 | GCU 88 – 64 TAR |
| Feb 23, 2024 | TAR 77 – 74 GCU |
| Jan 14, 2024 | GCU 74 – 48 TAR |
| Jan 29, 2023 | TAR 81 – 62 GCU |
| Jan 16, 2022 | GCU 80 – 59 TAR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TAR | GCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 13-3 |
| Home | 10-3 | 16-1 |
| Away | 1-14 | 5-4 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 60.2 | 77.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 70.0 |
| Massey | -10.0 (#320) | 5.8 (#92) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.95 (#255) | 0.91 (#100) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.30 (#267) | 0.89 (#108) |
| RPI | 0.459 (#255) | 0.532 (#115) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TAR | GCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 28.0 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.53 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.5% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 25.6% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 31.2% | 32.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.7% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.0% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 65.2% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 36.0% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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