See my tailor, he's called Simon, I know it's going to fit. "Sex & Drugs & Rock & Roll" - Ian Dury
Western Athletic Conference · Wisdom Gym · February 14, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread GCU -11.5 Home covered
O/U 136.5 Under
Money TAR +700 / GCU -1200
Model Predictions
Spread Total TAR win
Actual GCU +4 124 Lost
Massey GCU -12.7 (+8.7)
Massey Totals 136.4 (-12.4)
Bradley-Terry 21%
Weighted B-T 18%
Baseline ML GCU -10.4 (+6.4) 135.8 (-11.8) 16%
Baseline Plus ML GCU -11.1 (+7.1) 139.8 (-15.8) 16%
Efficiency Plus ML GCU -11.3 (+7.3) 134.7 (-10.7) 17%
Baseline Tuned ML GCU -11.1 (+7.1) 135.2 (-11.2) 16%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 19, 2025 GCU 8864 TAR
Feb 23, 2024 TAR 7774 GCU
Jan 14, 2024 GCU 7448 TAR
Jan 29, 2023 TAR 8162 GCU
Jan 16, 2022 GCU 8059 TAR

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings TAR GCU
Overall 12-20 26-8
Conference 7-9 13-3
Home 10-3 16-1
Away 1-14 5-4
Neutral 1-3 5-3
Last 5 2-3 4-1
Streak L3 L1
Avg Pts For 60.2 77.6
Avg Pts Against 70.2 70.0
Massey -10.0 (#320) 5.8 (#92)
Bradley-Terry -0.95 (#255) 0.91 (#100)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.30 (#267) 0.89 (#108)
RPI 0.459 (#255) 0.532 (#115)
Shooting & Four Factors TAR GCU
FG% 42.0% 44.5%
3PT% 33.8% 32.0%
REB / G 28.0 37.7
OREB / G 8.4 11.4
AST / TO 0.53 1.02
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 46.5% 50.0%
TOV% 25.6% 18.3%
ORB% 27.5% 32.4%
FT Rate 31.2% 32.5%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 53.7% 46.4%
Opp TOV% 23.0% 20.6%
DRB% 65.2% 72.0%
Opp FT Rate 36.0% 23.2%

Game Analysis

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