Betting Lines
| Spread | GCU -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | GCU -1000 TAR +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GCU +26 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | GCU -12.9 (+13.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.6 (-18.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GCU -11.6 (+14.4) | 137.3 (-15.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GCU -12.5 (+13.5) | 139.3 (-17.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GCU -11.8 (+14.2) | 139.9 (-17.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GCU -12.4 (+13.6) | 138.4 (-16.4) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2025 | GCU 64 – 60 TAR |
| Jan 19, 2025 | GCU 88 – 64 TAR |
| Feb 23, 2024 | TAR 77 – 74 GCU |
| Jan 29, 2023 | TAR 81 – 62 GCU |
| Jan 16, 2022 | GCU 80 – 59 TAR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GCU | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-5 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 16-4 |
| Home | 16-0 | 13-4 |
| Away | 8-3 | 10-5 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.8 | 72.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.8 | 70.2 |
| Massey | 8.7 (#60) | -0.2 (#170) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.15 (#8) | 0.53 (#133) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.65 (#9) | 0.57 (#133) |
| RPI | 0.606 (#29) | 0.528 (#129) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GCU | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 35.7% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 34.1% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 65.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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