Betting Lines
| Spread | GCU -9.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 124.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GCU +21 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | GCU -9.5 (+11.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 120.3 (+18.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GCU -11.2 (+9.8) | 131.4 (+7.6) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GCU -9.0 (+12.0) | 134.0 (+5.0) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GCU -9.0 (+12.0) | 132.9 (+6.1) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GCU -9.4 (+11.6) | 132.7 (+6.3) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2025 | GCU 64 – 60 TAR |
| Jan 19, 2025 | GCU 88 – 64 TAR |
| Feb 23, 2024 | TAR 77 – 74 GCU |
| Jan 14, 2024 | GCU 74 – 48 TAR |
| Jan 29, 2023 | TAR 81 – 62 GCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GCU | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-8 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 9-9 |
| Home | 15-2 | 10-5 |
| Away | 7-5 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 63.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.0 | 65.8 |
| Massey | 6.5 (#85) | 0.7 (#156) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.95 (#53) | -0.16 (#191) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.87 (#72) | 0.24 (#158) |
| RPI | 0.526 (#125) | 0.506 (#160) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GCU | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 41.5 | 28.7 |
| OREB / G | 14.5 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 45.7% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 39.7% | 24.5% |
| FT Rate | 18.6% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.1% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 25.6% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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