Betting Lines
| Spread | GCU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | TAR +210 GCU -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TAR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TAR +3 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | GCU -5.3 (+8.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.0 (+8.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 22% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GCU -4.0 (+7.0) | 143.7 (+7.3) | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GCU -3.3 (+6.3) | 144.1 (+6.9) | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GCU -3.6 (+6.6) | 144.7 (+6.3) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GCU -3.6 (+6.6) | 145.4 (+5.6) | 36% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2025 | GCU 64 – 60 TAR |
| Jan 19, 2025 | GCU 88 – 64 TAR |
| Jan 14, 2024 | GCU 74 – 48 TAR |
| Jan 29, 2023 | TAR 81 – 62 GCU |
| Jan 16, 2022 | GCU 80 – 59 TAR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TAR | GCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 30-5 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 17-3 |
| Home | 13-4 | 16-0 |
| Away | 10-5 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 77.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 66.8 |
| Massey | 0.8 (#150) | 9.4 (#59) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.03 (#100) | 2.71 (#9) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.13 (#108) | 3.10 (#16) |
| RPI | 0.555 (#84) | 0.611 (#17) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TAR | GCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 35.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 34.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 46.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 66.5% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.2% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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