Betting Lines
| Spread | GCU -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | GCU -4000 TAR +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GCU +24 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | GCU -17.4 (+6.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.2 (+17.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GCU -14.2 (+9.8) | 135.7 (+16.3) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GCU -14.7 (+9.3) | 135.4 (+16.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GCU -14.4 (+9.6) | 135.6 (+16.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GCU -16.2 (+7.8) | 136.7 (+15.3) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2025 | GCU 64 – 60 TAR |
| Feb 23, 2024 | TAR 77 – 74 GCU |
| Jan 14, 2024 | GCU 74 – 48 TAR |
| Jan 29, 2023 | TAR 81 – 62 GCU |
| Jan 16, 2022 | GCU 80 – 59 TAR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GCU | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 13-3 | 7-9 |
| Home | 16-1 | 10-3 |
| Away | 5-4 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.6 | 60.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.0 | 70.2 |
| Massey | 5.1 (#96) | -8.7 (#310) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.85 (#102) | -0.81 (#243) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.82 (#115) | -1.27 (#262) |
| RPI | 0.532 (#124) | 0.464 (#236) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GCU | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 37.0% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 28.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.53 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 26.5% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 32.1% | 28.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 23.2% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 64.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 33.7% |
Game Analysis
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