Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | SMU -167 USF +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +2 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | SMU -0.3 (+1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.8 (+18.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -1.8 (+0.2) | 147.9 (+14.1) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -1.3 (+0.7) | 146.7 (+15.3) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -0.6 (+1.4) | 149.4 (+12.6) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -0.6 (+1.4) | 148.1 (+13.9) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2024 | USF 79 – 68 SMU |
| Feb 26, 2023 | USF 71 – 67 SMU |
| Jan 27, 2022 | SMU 74 – 54 USF |
| Jan 13, 2022 | SMU 77 – 65 USF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMU | USF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 7-11 |
| Home | 7-9 | 9-9 |
| Away | 1-11 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 72.0 |
| Massey | -1.4 (#199) | 1.8 (#136) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.63 (#239) | -0.48 (#225) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.34 (#201) | -0.10 (#185) |
| RPI | 0.494 (#188) | 0.485 (#205) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMU | USF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.8% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 33.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 28.6% |
Game Analysis
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