Betting Lines
| Spread | USF -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | USF -200 SMU +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USF +4 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | USF -6.1 (-2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.2 (-10.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USF -3.5 (+0.5) | 151.8 (-13.8) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USF -4.5 (-0.5) | 151.8 (-13.8) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USF -4.0 (-0.0) | 153.4 (-15.4) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USF -4.4 (-0.4) | 152.9 (-14.9) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2024 | USF 79 – 68 SMU |
| Jan 29, 2023 | SMU 82 – 80 USF |
| Jan 27, 2022 | SMU 74 – 54 USF |
| Jan 13, 2022 | SMU 77 – 65 USF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 5-13 |
| Home | 9-9 | 7-9 |
| Away | 4-7 | 1-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.0 | 75.6 |
| Massey | 1.5 (#140) | -1.0 (#194) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.36 (#214) | -0.38 (#217) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.01 (#173) | -0.25 (#190) |
| RPI | 0.475 (#229) | 0.488 (#200) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 33.2% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.9% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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