Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | SMU -1429 USF +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +12 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | SMU -14.4 (-2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.1 (+15.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -12.6 (-0.6) | 134.6 (+7.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -12.2 (-0.2) | 133.8 (+8.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -11.9 (+0.1) | 133.5 (+8.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -11.6 (+0.4) | 133.3 (+8.7) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2024 | USF 79 – 68 SMU |
| Feb 26, 2023 | USF 71 – 67 SMU |
| Jan 29, 2023 | SMU 82 – 80 USF |
| Jan 27, 2022 | SMU 74 – 54 USF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMU | USF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-9 | 8-23 |
| Conference | 13-4 | 3-15 |
| Home | 17-1 | 6-10 |
| Away | 6-5 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 57.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 64.9 |
| Massey | 6.5 (#85) | -4.1 (#246) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.11 (#90) | -1.16 (#275) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.45 (#92) | -1.38 (#269) |
| RPI | 0.552 (#87) | 0.437 (#277) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMU | USF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 37.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 23.7% |
| REB / G | 39.3 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 41.2% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 18.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.3% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.0% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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