Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +20 | 128 | Lost |
| Massey | SMU -6.1 (-13.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.7 (+0.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -5.8 (-14.2) | 132.3 (-4.3) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -6.5 (-13.5) | 132.3 (-4.3) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -5.5 (-14.5) | 132.8 (-4.8) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -4.8 (-15.2) | 133.0 (-5.0) | 28% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2024 | USF 79 – 68 SMU |
| Feb 26, 2023 | USF 71 – 67 SMU |
| Jan 29, 2023 | SMU 82 – 80 USF |
| Jan 13, 2022 | SMU 77 – 65 USF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-23 | 24-9 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 13-4 |
| Home | 6-10 | 17-1 |
| Away | 2-9 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 57.5 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.9 | 67.1 |
| Massey | -1.2 (#195) | 8.3 (#63) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.57 (#228) | 1.58 (#65) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.34 (#197) | 1.97 (#66) |
| RPI | 0.466 (#224) | 0.568 (#70) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.2% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 25.1% | 37.1% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.2% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 18.5% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 45.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 16.4% |
Game Analysis
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