Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | USF +130 SMU -167 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USF +11 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | SMU -3.5 (+14.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.2 (+5.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -1.7 (+12.7) | 143.1 (+3.9) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USF -0.3 (+10.7) | 141.1 (+5.9) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -0.5 (+11.5) | 143.3 (+3.7) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USF -0.0 (+11.0) | 143.2 (+3.8) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2023 | USF 71 – 67 SMU |
| Jan 29, 2023 | SMU 82 – 80 USF |
| Jan 27, 2022 | SMU 74 – 54 USF |
| Jan 13, 2022 | SMU 77 – 65 USF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 11-7 |
| Home | 15-3 | 14-3 |
| Away | 8-4 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.7 | 76.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 69.0 |
| Massey | 5.3 (#99) | 12.1 (#38) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.64 (#56) | 1.35 (#74) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.63 (#80) | 1.97 (#60) |
| RPI | 0.586 (#39) | 0.562 (#73) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 39.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 13.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 1.41 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 38.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.4% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 45.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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