Betting Lines
| Spread | SIU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 123.5 Over |
| Money | ILST +170 SIU -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILST +6 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | SIU -4.7 (+10.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 121.7 (+16.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 16% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SIU -5.1 (+11.1) | 128.4 (+9.6) | 32% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SIU -4.2 (+10.2) | 130.5 (+7.5) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SIU -4.9 (+10.9) | 130.5 (+7.5) | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SIU -5.1 (+11.1) | 131.6 (+6.4) | 34% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | SIU 54 – 50 ILST |
| Dec 19, 2025 | ILST 75 – 68 SIU |
| Feb 26, 2025 | SIU 88 – 79 ILST |
| Jan 5, 2025 | ILST 85 – 54 SIU |
| Feb 11, 2024 | SIU 69 – 66 ILST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILST | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 14-6 |
| Home | 8-7 | 13-2 |
| Away | 3-9 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.5 | 65.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 61.7 |
| Massey | -4.9 (#254) | 3.3 (#121) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.98 (#275) | 1.31 (#69) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.29 (#276) | 1.12 (#97) |
| RPI | 0.441 (#287) | 0.570 (#62) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILST | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 6.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.68 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 22.4% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 21.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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