Betting Lines
| Spread | UNLV -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | UNLV -125 NEV +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNLV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNLV +6 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | UNLV -0.0 (+6.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.0 (-13.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNLV -0.7 (+5.3) | 146.1 (-16.1) | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNLV -0.9 (+5.1) | 144.3 (-14.3) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNLV -0.7 (+5.3) | 145.1 (-15.1) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNLV -0.3 (+5.7) | 146.3 (-16.3) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | UNLV 85 – 83 NEV |
| Jan 31, 2026 | NEV 89 – 76 UNLV |
| Mar 1, 2025 | UNLV 68 – 55 NEV |
| Feb 2, 2025 | NEV 71 – 65 UNLV |
| Mar 10, 2024 | NEV 75 – 65 UNLV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNLV | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 12-6 |
| Home | 9-7 | 14-1 |
| Away | 5-5 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 68.2 |
| Massey | 6.6 (#81) | 10.0 (#46) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.07 (#83) | 2.30 (#22) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.68 (#69) | 2.64 (#31) |
| RPI | 0.562 (#73) | 0.637 (#8) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNLV | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 24.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 31.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.5% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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