Betting Lines
| Spread | MTSU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | FIU +160 MTSU -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FIU +8 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | MTSU -4.6 (+12.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.6 (+13.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTSU -3.5 (+11.5) | 139.0 (+17.0) | 33% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTSU -4.2 (+12.2) | 137.1 (+18.9) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTSU -2.9 (+10.9) | 140.0 (+16.0) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MTSU -3.6 (+11.6) | 140.6 (+15.4) | 36% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | MTSU 73 – 67 FIU |
| Feb 5, 2026 | FIU 88 – 84 MTSU |
| Mar 8, 2025 | MTSU 78 – 56 FIU |
| Jan 3, 2025 | MTSU 73 – 69 FIU |
| Feb 10, 2024 | MTSU 68 – 66 FIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FIU | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 11-9 |
| Home | 11-7 | 12-2 |
| Away | 3-10 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.5 | 69.0 |
| Massey | -4.4 (#247) | 3.6 (#114) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.28 (#200) | 0.88 (#94) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.72 (#231) | 0.84 (#116) |
| RPI | 0.473 (#233) | 0.574 (#59) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FIU | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 31.3 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 21.0% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.7% | 22.3% |
| DRB% | 64.3% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 27.3% |
Game Analysis
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