Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | VILL -115 PROV -111 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +5 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | PROV -2.1 (-2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.0 (-7.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -1.8 (-3.2) | 143.8 (-8.8) | 42% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -0.5 (-4.5) | 140.3 (-5.3) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -1.5 (-3.5) | 143.8 (-8.8) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -1.7 (-3.3) | 143.5 (-8.5) | 44% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | VILL 87 – 73 PROV |
| Jan 13, 2026 | VILL 88 – 82 PROV |
| Feb 15, 2025 | PROV 75 – 62 VILL |
| Jan 18, 2025 | VILL 75 – 73 PROV |
| Mar 2, 2024 | VILL 71 – 60 PROV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 13-7 |
| Home | 10-4 | 15-2 |
| Away | 5-9 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 77.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 71.0 |
| Massey | 6.2 (#84) | 11.8 (#29) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.75 (#109) | 2.20 (#31) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.15 (#94) | 2.89 (#21) |
| RPI | 0.528 (#129) | 0.582 (#47) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 23.4% | 37.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 29.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 18.1% |
Game Analysis
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