Betting Lines
| Spread | MRSH -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | MRSH -800 GAST +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRSH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRSH +38 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | MRSH -14.8 (+23.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.0 (+27.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRSH -11.8 (+26.2) | 143.4 (+24.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRSH -10.2 (+27.8) | 143.6 (+24.4) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRSH -11.6 (+26.4) | 143.0 (+25.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MRSH -11.8 (+26.2) | 143.8 (+24.2) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | GAST 81 – 73 MRSH |
| Dec 31, 2025 | MRSH 84 – 80 GAST |
| Mar 7, 2025 | MRSH 79 – 76 GAST |
| Jan 31, 2025 | GAST 85 – 81 MRSH |
| Jan 24, 2025 | MRSH 92 – 79 GAST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRSH | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-8 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 3-15 |
| Home | 15-2 | 10-9 |
| Away | 9-5 | 0-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.2 | 65.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 70.9 |
| Massey | 7.8 (#68) | -3.4 (#234) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.93 (#92) | -1.01 (#277) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.35 (#84) | -1.08 (#261) |
| RPI | 0.555 (#82) | 0.437 (#295) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRSH | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 28.9% |
| REB / G | 40.1 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.60 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 45.3% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 34.2% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 14.4% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.2% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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