Betting Lines
| Spread | FUR -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | UNCG -111 FUR -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FUR +12 | 126 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCG -1.5 (-13.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.3 (-14.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCG -1.5 (-13.5) | 140.3 (-14.3) | 56% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -0.6 (-12.6) | 139.4 (-13.4) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCG -1.9 (-13.9) | 141.2 (-15.2) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNCG -1.6 (-13.6) | 140.8 (-14.8) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | FUR 81 – 75 UNCG |
| Feb 8, 2026 | UNCG 67 – 64 FUR |
| Jan 23, 2026 | FUR 89 – 66 UNCG |
| Feb 15, 2025 | UNCG 58 – 50 FUR |
| Jan 4, 2025 | UNCG 84 – 67 FUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCG | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 28-8 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 15-3 |
| Home | 11-3 | 14-2 |
| Away | 8-6 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 79.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 71.4 |
| Massey | 2.1 (#130) | 4.1 (#110) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.39 (#138) | 0.64 (#117) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.55 (#131) | 0.72 (#125) |
| RPI | 0.539 (#105) | 0.529 (#127) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCG | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 55.8% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 74.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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