Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | SDSU -1400 SJSU +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +21 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | SDSU -12.1 (+8.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.5 (-12.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -9.9 (+11.1) | 135.5 (-12.5) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -12.5 (+8.5) | 133.6 (-10.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -10.1 (+10.9) | 137.2 (-14.2) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -10.1 (+10.9) | 137.8 (-14.8) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | SDSU 81 – 68 SJSU |
| Feb 12, 2025 | SDSU 69 – 66 SJSU |
| Jan 29, 2025 | SDSU 71 – 68 SJSU |
| Feb 28, 2024 | SDSU 72 – 64 SJSU |
| Jan 10, 2024 | SDSU 81 – 78 SJSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDSU | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-7 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 10-8 |
| Home | 15-1 | 12-3 |
| Away | 8-2 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 9-4 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 66.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.6 | 66.2 |
| Massey | 12.0 (#28) | 3.4 (#120) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.30 (#23) | 1.07 (#84) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.81 (#25) | 1.37 (#83) |
| RPI | 0.631 (#11) | 0.556 (#78) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDSU | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.1% | 18.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 12.5% |
| DRB% | 75.5% | 76.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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