Betting Lines
| Spread | SJU -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Under |
| Money | SJU -600 GTWN +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJU +2 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | SJU -13.4 (-11.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.9 (-12.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJU -11.3 (-9.3) | 156.7 (-8.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJU -12.5 (-10.5) | 156.4 (-8.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJU -11.5 (-9.5) | 157.0 (-9.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJU -12.1 (-10.1) | 157.9 (-9.9) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | SJU 72 – 69 GTWN |
| Jan 1, 2026 | SJU 95 – 83 GTWN |
| Jan 28, 2025 | SJU 66 – 41 GTWN |
| Jan 15, 2025 | SJU 63 – 58 GTWN |
| Mar 9, 2024 | SJU 86 – 78 GTWN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJU | GTWN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 2-18 |
| Home | 11-6 | 5-12 |
| Away | 3-8 | 1-11 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.3 | 69.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 78.1 |
| Massey | 6.7 (#79) | -3.2 (#231) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.21 (#75) | -0.77 (#251) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.63 (#71) | -0.85 (#244) |
| RPI | 0.535 (#113) | 0.450 (#272) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJU | GTWN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 39.4 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 18.2% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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