Sometimes we're not prepared for adversity. "Mercy, Mercy, Mercy" - The Cannonball Adderley Quartet
Big East Conference · Capital One Arena · January 1, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread SJU -8.5 Away covered
O/U 152.5 Over
Money GTWN +300 / SJU -380
Model Predictions
Spread Total GTWN win
Actual SJU +12 178 Lost
Massey SJU -11.9 (-0.1)
Massey Totals 156.7 (+21.3)
Bradley-Terry 44%
Weighted B-T 31%
Efficiency Plus ML SJU -8.3 (-3.7) 152.5 (+25.5) 18%
Baseline Tuned ML SJU -8.4 (-3.6) 148.1 (+29.9) 24%
Baseline ML SJU -8.5 (-3.5) 148.4 (+29.6) 22%
Baseline Plus ML SJU -8.8 (-3.2) 152.7 (+25.3) 21%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 4, 2026 SJU 7269 GTWN
Jan 28, 2025 SJU 6641 GTWN
Jan 15, 2025 SJU 6358 GTWN
Mar 9, 2024 SJU 8678 GTWN
Feb 22, 2024 SJU 9085 GTWN

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings GTWN SJU
Overall 16-18 30-7
Conference 6-14 18-2
Home 10-7 18-2
Away 4-8 9-1
Neutral 2-3 3-4
Last 5 3-2 4-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 73.6 80.9
Avg Pts Against 72.9 69.6
Massey 2.3 (#134) 18.1 (#17)
Bradley-Terry 1.14 (#98) 2.00 (#51)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.67 (#87) 3.14 (#42)
RPI 0.529 (#111) 0.605 (#35)
Shooting & Four Factors GTWN SJU
FG% 44.6% 47.0%
3PT% 30.3% 34.6%
REB / G 37.2 38.8
OREB / G 11.3 13.5
AST / TO 1.85 1.26
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 49.9% 53.3%
TOV% 12.5% 17.5%
ORB% 30.9% 38.0%
FT Rate 32.2% 34.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.1% 46.2%
Opp TOV% 17.3% 21.1%
DRB% 71.2% 65.5%
Opp FT Rate 27.4% 20.5%

Game Analysis

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