Betting Lines
| Spread | SJU -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | GTWN +300 SJU -380 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GTWN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJU +12 | 178 | Lost |
| Massey | SJU -11.9 (-0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.7 (+21.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJU -8.8 (-3.2) | 152.7 (+25.3) | 21% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJU -8.3 (-3.7) | 152.5 (+25.5) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJU -8.4 (-3.6) | 148.1 (+29.9) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJU -8.5 (-3.5) | 148.4 (+29.6) | 22% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | SJU 72 – 69 GTWN |
| Jan 28, 2025 | SJU 66 – 41 GTWN |
| Jan 15, 2025 | SJU 63 – 58 GTWN |
| Mar 9, 2024 | SJU 86 – 78 GTWN |
| Feb 22, 2024 | SJU 90 – 85 GTWN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GTWN | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-18 | 30-7 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 18-2 |
| Home | 10-7 | 18-2 |
| Away | 4-8 | 9-1 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.6 | 80.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.9 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 2.3 (#134) | 18.1 (#17) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.14 (#98) | 2.00 (#51) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.67 (#87) | 3.14 (#42) |
| RPI | 0.529 (#111) | 0.605 (#35) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GTWN | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.3% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.85 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 12.5% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 38.0% |
| FT Rate | 32.2% | 34.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 65.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.4% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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