Betting Lines
| Spread | SJU -18.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | SJU -5000 GTWN +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJU +8 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | SJU -18.0 (-10.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.1 (+10.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJU -16.1 (-8.1) | 152.1 (+11.9) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJU -17.7 (-9.7) | 152.9 (+11.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJU -17.4 (-9.4) | 154.0 (+10.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJU -17.5 (-9.5) | 153.0 (+11.0) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | SJU 72 – 69 GTWN |
| Jan 1, 2026 | SJU 95 – 83 GTWN |
| Jan 28, 2025 | SJU 66 – 41 GTWN |
| Jan 15, 2025 | SJU 63 – 58 GTWN |
| Feb 22, 2024 | SJU 90 – 85 GTWN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJU | GTWN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 2-18 |
| Home | 11-4 | 7-12 |
| Away | 6-7 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 77.9 |
| Massey | 13.3 (#25) | -1.5 (#187) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.60 (#61) | -0.68 (#248) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.18 (#50) | -0.54 (#215) |
| RPI | 0.547 (#98) | 0.444 (#289) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJU | GTWN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 39.4 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 14.7 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 38.6% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 18.7% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 55.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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