Betting Lines
| Spread | SJU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | GTWN +195 SJU -230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GTWN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJU +25 | 107 | Lost |
| Massey | SJU -5.6 (-19.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.3 (-33.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJU -5.1 (-19.9) | 136.6 (-29.6) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJU -5.5 (-19.5) | 135.7 (-28.7) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJU -4.6 (-20.4) | 134.9 (-27.9) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJU -4.2 (-20.8) | 137.2 (-30.2) | 32% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | SJU 72 – 69 GTWN |
| Jan 1, 2026 | SJU 95 – 83 GTWN |
| Jan 15, 2025 | SJU 63 – 58 GTWN |
| Mar 9, 2024 | SJU 86 – 78 GTWN |
| Feb 22, 2024 | SJU 90 – 85 GTWN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GTWN | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 31-5 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 18-2 |
| Home | 14-5 | 19-0 |
| Away | 3-9 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 78.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 65.8 |
| Massey | 7.4 (#80) | 16.4 (#23) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.99 (#93) | 2.56 (#28) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.11 (#97) | 3.89 (#20) |
| RPI | 0.536 (#118) | 0.618 (#25) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GTWN | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 29.9% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 41.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 14.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 34.9% | 38.1% |
| FT Rate | 18.6% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.5% | 46.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 21.9% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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