Betting Lines
| Spread | SJU -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | GTWN +350 SJU -500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GTWN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJU +5 | 175 | Lost |
| Massey | SJU -9.5 (+4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.4 (+23.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJU -9.1 (+4.1) | 149.1 (+25.9) | 17% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJU -9.8 (+4.8) | 149.4 (+25.6) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJU -8.3 (+3.3) | 148.2 (+26.8) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJU -9.1 (+4.1) | 148.2 (+26.8) | 18% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | SJU 72 – 69 GTWN |
| Jan 1, 2026 | SJU 95 – 83 GTWN |
| Jan 28, 2025 | SJU 66 – 41 GTWN |
| Jan 15, 2025 | SJU 63 – 58 GTWN |
| Mar 9, 2024 | SJU 86 – 78 GTWN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GTWN | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 11-9 |
| Home | 7-12 | 11-4 |
| Away | 2-10 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.9 | 71.9 |
| Massey | -1.3 (#183) | 11.6 (#42) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.59 (#230) | 1.30 (#77) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.38 (#208) | 1.80 (#68) |
| RPI | 0.446 (#280) | 0.536 (#114) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GTWN | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 39.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 15.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 38.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.7% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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