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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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88–34 on winners spread MAE 8.7 122 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Nebraska @ Purdue +13.8 133.0 86% 55–73 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Quinnipiac +12.8 136.9 88% 51–58 ✓
Siena @ Niagara -0.2 131.8 37% 70–64 ✓
Manhattan @ Mount St. Mary's +8.5 134.8 72% 62–57 ✗
Fairfield @ Iona +17.6 140.4 89% 69–75 ✓
Marist @ Canisius +4.7 133.9 71% 76–58 ✗
Villanova @ Butler +5.0 137.0 68% 71–79 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Akron +12.8 146.3 86% 67–104 ✓
Michigan State @ Illinois +6.7 138.5 77% 66–75 ✓
VCU @ Dayton +6.8 133.0 67% 63–62 ✗
Utah State @ Nevada +2.5 144.9 66% 70–85 ✓
Kentucky @ Tennessee +16.5 135.7 85% 63–56 ✗
Miami @ NC State +5.4 153.5 76% 81–83 ✓
West Virginia @ Oklahoma +2.2 138.9 62% 76–77 ✓
Seton Hall @ DePaul -4.4 139.5 34% 71–67 ✓
Davidson @ George Mason +5.2 137.1 72% 65–67 ✓
Cleveland State @ IU Indianapolis -12.2 134.2 14% 89–54 ✓
Drexel @ Northeastern -1.0 131.4 41% 76–55 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ Saint Joseph's +2.7 145.7 67% 55–86 ✓
Wisconsin @ Indiana +4.7 139.6 70% 45–63 ✓
Holy Cross @ Lafayette +7.0 128.5 74% 48–62 ✓
Army @ Boston University +1.7 148.2 52% 83–74 ✗
Maine @ UMBC +6.5 152.2 78% 77–85 ✓
Bryant @ New Hampshire -1.3 142.6 35% 87–81 ✓
Columbia @ Harvard +11.8 130.4 85% 51–73 ✓
Georgia @ Ole Miss +2.8 132.5 62% 62–58 ✗
Western Carolina @ The Citadel -2.8 144.7 36% 61–65 ✗
Bowling Green @ Western Michigan -0.1 150.1 55% 92–108 ✗
Sacred Heart @ St. Francis Brooklyn -0.8 136.0 41% 79–82 ✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Central Connecticut +0.7 145.6 51% 88–80 ✗
Robert Morris @ Detroit Mercy +4.2 144.7 68% 75–87 ✓
North Alabama @ Queens University +7.1 153.0 80% 78–107 ✓
North Dakota State @ Omaha +0.3 145.5 48% 78–65 ✗
Kansas State @ TCU +2.6 149.1 65% 68–82 ✓
Arkansas @ Vanderbilt -3.5 143.8 41% 84–97 ✗
Providence @ Creighton +5.0 150.3 73% 67–73 ✓
UCF @ Tulane -1.0 148.0 47% 69–77 ✗
Bucknell @ Colgate +11.8 149.6 84% 65–71 ✓
American University @ Lehigh -3.4 137.9 38% 62–78 ✗
North Texas @ Florida Atlantic +5.6 128.4 70% 62–66 ✓
North Carolina @ Louisville -13.5 147.9 13% 80–59 ✓
UMass Lowell @ Binghamton -7.0 144.4 27% 65–66 ✗
Pennsylvania @ Dartmouth -4.4 141.0 35% 71–75 ✗
Princeton @ Brown -4.0 134.5 31% 70–72 ✗
UTSA @ Charlotte +14.2 137.8 88% 54–72 ✓
UNC Asheville @ Gardner-Webb +3.6 133.2 59% 72–67 ✗
Charleston Southern @ Radford +6.9 143.5 70% 70–75 ✓
Winthrop @ Campbell +4.8 139.7 70% 78–74 ✗
Miami (OH) @ Ball State +11.4 149.8 86% 61–75 ✓
Merrimack @ Stonehill +5.7 129.4 64% 59–47 ✗
Coastal Carolina @ Georgia State +2.0 131.1 58% 66–100 ✓
Delaware @ Hofstra +8.5 144.3 81% 62–86 ✓
Stony Brook @ North Carolina A&T +4.0 137.6 64% 59–61 ✓
North Florida @ Kennesaw State +9.5 150.2 84% 72–86 ✓
Richmond @ St. Bonaventure -0.7 133.9 45% 63–71 ✗
Pittsburgh @ Georgia Tech -2.1 142.6 44% 71–60 ✓
UTEP @ Rice +4.3 145.1 66% 82–83 ✓
Fordham @ La Salle +0.0 145.0 48% 66–64 ✗
Stephen F. Austin @ Southern Utah +5.0 154.6 69% 58–67 ✓
Southern Miss @ Arkansas State -10.0 130.1 19% 74–57 ✓
Texas State @ UL Monroe -3.4 131.2 45% 58–61 ✗
North Dakota @ Denver +3.8 143.4 60% 71–78 ✓
Youngstown State @ Oakland -5.4 158.0 26% 85–69 ✓
Monmouth @ Towson +16.2 134.4 89% 48–68 ✓
Stetson @ Eastern Kentucky +0.6 153.2 51% 70–85 ✓
Missouri @ Florida +3.0 153.3 70% 64–73 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Morehead State -2.1 146.8 44% 91–86 ✓
Iowa State @ Kansas +6.6 131.6 72% 60–62 ✓
Virginia @ Florida State -10.3 135.0 16% 67–58 ✓
Elon @ Charleston +18.2 148.5 90% 60–78 ✓
South Carolina State @ North Carolina Central +12.1 154.5 87% 67–71 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Florida A&M -3.0 133.1 27% 67–54 ✓
Tulsa @ Wichita State +10.5 135.7 85% 69–73 ✓
Cincinnati @ SMU -4.7 143.7 31% 54–52 ✓
Grambling @ Southern +2.5 140.6 62% 73–81 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Bethune-Cookman +4.7 139.4 75% 71–77 ✓
Morgan State @ Coppin State -0.0 151.9 49% 83–66 ✓
Arizona State @ Oregon State -8.4 132.6 21% 74–69 ✓
UIC @ Murray State +6.5 139.6 78% 64–81 ✓
Valparaiso @ Evansville +0.1 138.3 39% 76–69 ✗
UAB @ Louisiana Tech -1.6 157.5 45% 81–74 ✓
Howard @ Norfolk State +7.7 140.1 77% 86–84 ✗
Northwestern State @ Nicholls -0.1 139.6 54% 63–77 ✗
Saint Louis @ George Washington -2.4 154.1 37% 81–74 ✓
Mercer @ East Tennessee State +2.7 136.7 64% 68–55 ✗
UNC Greensboro @ Furman +5.8 139.1 70% 88–80 ✗
Long Island University @ Saint Francis +11.7 153.1 86% 68–87 ✓
Louisiana @ South Alabama -0.8 143.8 38% 79–76 ✓
Troy @ App State -2.7 133.6 37% 45–58 ✗
Tennessee State @ Tennessee Tech +2.2 144.2 58% 63–71 ✓
UC Irvine @ Cal State Northridge -12.1 136.8 14% 71–57 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Bellarmine -6.0 136.7 31% 41–61 ✗
LSU @ Alabama +15.8 147.2 87% 66–106 ✓
Delaware State @ Maryland Eastern Shore +10.4 137.3 85% 66–68 ✓
LSU New Orleans @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +11.6 153.7 86% 79–97 ✓
Houston Christian @ McNeese +8.6 152.6 79% 90–81 ✗
Rhode Island @ Massachusetts +6.0 144.6 73% 65–75 ✓
Buffalo @ Central Michigan +0.8 145.0 56% 78–87 ✓
Toledo @ Northern Illinois -7.0 155.4 25% 84–67 ✓
Little Rock @ Eastern Illinois +2.2 141.7 59% 63–70 ✓
Duke @ Clemson +1.6 142.2 61% 64–72 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Belmont +5.5 141.7 74% 72–76 ✓
Navy @ Loyola Maryland -4.4 135.2 34% 67–69 ✗
Abilene Christian @ Tarleton State +5.3 141.2 72% 63–72 ✓
William & Mary @ UNC Wilmington +11.1 135.7 85% 69–67 ✗
UC San Diego @ Cal State Bakersfield +1.7 125.7 57% 52–56 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ UC Davis +3.1 140.3 63% 79–83 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Sacramento State +6.5 141.5 79% 56–59 ✓
Austin Peay @ Lipscomb +6.3 142.0 75% 72–86 ✓
Jacksonville @ Jacksonville State -3.5 128.5 33% 68–62 ✓
SE Louisiana @ Incarnate Word -4.7 150.7 29% 75–71 ✓
Lamar @ East Texas A&M +9.0 146.2 83% 66–81 ✓
Oklahoma State @ Baylor +6.0 143.2 78% 58–74 ✓
Alcorn State @ Texas Southern -0.2 144.8 51% 79–74 ✓
California @ Washington +7.3 133.3 78% 78–81 ✓
Texas A&M @ South Carolina -8.0 137.2 21% 94–53 ✓
Chattanooga @ Samford +3.1 150.5 67% 74–75 ✓
Weber State @ Montana State +8.3 131.1 78% 52–67 ✓
Arizona @ Oregon -3.8 151.1 35% 68–87 ✗
Jackson State @ Prairie View A&M +4.7 136.3 67% 50–59 ✓
Lindenwood @ SIU Edwardsville +12.6 138.0 85% 58–68 ✓
Idaho @ Eastern Washington +8.7 150.3 82% 74–95 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.