Just tell me where it hurts and I'll tell you who to call. "Quinn the Eskimo" - Bob Dylan
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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37–17 on winners spread MAE 8.4 54 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Florida International @ Western Kentucky +6.3 145.0 75% 59–70 ✓
Notre Dame @ Syracuse +6.1 140.0 73% 73–78 ✓
UAlbany @ NJIT +2.4 142.0 62% 67–74 ✓
Colorado State @ UNLV +6.7 148.6 74% 82–81 ✗
Air Force @ Fresno State +1.1 128.6 51% 51–48 ✗
South Carolina Upstate @ Longwood +10.9 138.3 84% 65–72 ✓
Presbyterian @ High Point +5.3 148.7 63% 56–64 ✓
VMI @ Wofford +8.9 142.1 80% 67–86 ✓
Old Dominion @ Marshall +11.1 142.8 85% 65–73 ✓
Georgia Southern @ James Madison +10.4 139.5 83% 71–83 ✓
South Dakota State @ South Dakota -1.8 137.2 46% 82–64 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Green Bay -8.3 134.1 17% 74–53 ✓
Wright State @ Milwaukee +3.7 154.9 69% 78–74 ✗
Central Arkansas @ Liberty +20.2 142.9 90% 62–82 ✓
Chicago State @ UT Rio Grande Valley +4.1 151.0 69% 82–85 ✓
Colorado @ UCLA +10.7 138.0 86% 54–68 ✓
Texas Tech @ Texas +10.0 148.3 84% 70–72 ✓
Stanford @ Washington State +9.4 139.2 79% 59–60 ✓
Illinois State @ Southern Illinois +9.5 127.9 82% 57–69 ✓
Bradley @ Drake -1.4 130.9 38% 61–86 ✗
Wake Forest @ Boston College -3.5 148.2 34% 85–63 ✓
Seattle U @ Utah Valley +7.3 140.1 72% 85–80 ✗
St. Thomas @ Oral Roberts +12.7 158.2 86% 69–81 ✓
Western Illinois @ Kansas City +5.7 139.2 71% 60–52 ✗
Mississippi State @ Auburn +5.8 131.3 77% 63–69 ✓
UT Martin @ Southern Indiana +2.5 157.3 66% 66–80 ✓
New Mexico @ San Diego State +6.0 148.8 72% 76–67 ✗
UT Arlington @ New Mexico State +9.4 135.6 84% 66–55 ✗
Sam Houston @ Utah Tech -4.3 143.9 37% 78–53 ✓
Santa Clara @ Pacific -3.6 151.3 36% 92–81 ✓
Pepperdine @ BYU +8.8 149.7 82% 81–91 ✓
Idaho State @ Montana +4.5 140.9 70% 55–84 ✓
Portland @ Gonzaga +14.9 160.1 87% 75–115 ✓
Grand Canyon @ California Baptist -1.8 133.5 38% 74–79 ✗
San Diego @ Loyola Marymount +8.7 154.8 83% 84–98 ✓
UC Riverside @ UC Santa Barbara +6.6 135.0 75% 65–64 ✗
Northern Colorado @ Portland State +5.2 157.2 70% 69–67 ✗
Utah @ USC +2.3 135.8 62% 56–71 ✓
Boise State @ Wyoming -7.8 135.0 21% 85–68 ✓
Saint Mary's @ San Francisco -8.0 134.1 20% 78–61 ✓
Long Beach State @ Hawai'i +5.8 141.3 71% 70–79 ✓
St. John's @ UConn +12.1 155.2 85% 85–74 ✗
Marquette @ Xavier +3.0 163.4 67% 76–80 ✓
Marist @ Niagara +4.8 126.5 62% 66–64 ✗
Siena @ Canisius -4.1 140.5 39% 62–66 ✗
Northwestern @ Michigan +2.1 137.0 62% 78–85 ✓
South Florida @ East Carolina +1.3 139.9 58% 81–70 ✗
Rider @ Iona +13.2 142.6 86% 70–67 ✗
Fairfield @ Saint Peter's +0.4 128.3 44% 56–52 ✗
Quinnipiac @ Mount St. Mary's -5.5 133.7 24% 58–51 ✓
Ohio State @ Rutgers +4.6 135.2 76% 64–68 ✓
Memphis @ Temple -3.5 150.7 35% 61–59 ✓
Indiana State @ Missouri State +0.3 141.0 44% 62–64 ✓
Maryland @ Iowa +4.5 149.6 70% 67–81 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.