← All models

Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

← Prev day Next day →

81–42 on winners spread MAE 9.1 123 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
George Mason @ George Washington	+4.2	150.1	65%	53–72	✓
Cornell @ Princeton	-1.8	166.3	44%	89–65	✓
Saint Peter's @ Sacred Heart	-1.5	149.9	45%	71–78	✗
Yale @ Dartmouth	-9.2	159.6	20%	83–70	✓
Quinnipiac @ Siena	+4.7	143.8	67%	74–62	✗
Mount St. Mary's @ Rider	-4.3	139.3	35%	65–55	✓
Iona @ Canisius	-7.3	139.5	25%	69–63	✓
Brown @ Harvard	+9.9	130.3	82%	53–56	✓
Columbia @ Pennsylvania	+2.8	152.1	60%	67–76	✓
Michigan State @ Wisconsin	-4.3	151.0	35%	71–92	✗
Saint Louis @ Loyola Chicago	-25.4	158.8	1%	86–59	✓
Massachusetts @ Akron	+14.3	169.8	90%	92–99	✓
Ohio @ Miami (OH)	+14.1	168.0	90%	74–90	✓
UNLV @ Boise State	+12.3	161.9	87%	86–83	✗
Hampton @ North Carolina A&T	-1.3	143.9	45%	70–71	✗
Clemson @ Duke	+13.2	135.4	89%	54–67	✓
Fordham @ Rhode Island	+6.3	128.0	72%	70–66	✗
TCU @ Oklahoma State	-0.2	157.8	49%	95–92	✓
Georgia Tech @ Notre Dame	+9.3	150.2	80%	74–89	✓
California @ Boston College	-4.4	137.4	35%	86–75	✓
Navy @ Colgate	+0.6	142.4	52%	84–80	✗
Samford @ East Tennessee State	+9.0	148.3	79%	82–72	✗
UCLA @ Michigan	+18.3	156.3	95%	56–86	✓
Kansas @ Iowa State	+5.5	146.2	69%	56–74	✓
Northwestern @ Nebraska	+13.1	143.8	88%	49–68	✓
St. John's @ Providence	-6.8	180.4	27%	79–69	✓
Texas A&M @ Vanderbilt	+9.8	174.2	81%	69–82	✓
Bucknell @ Boston University	+7.6	148.7	75%	69–82	✓
Long Island University @ New Haven	-7.3	131.5	25%	52–55	✗
Chicago State @ Le Moyne	+9.0	149.0	79%	63–81	✓
UMBC @ New Hampshire	-2.8	142.5	40%	85–63	✓
Furman @ VMI	-13.4	145.5	11%	90–72	✓
Mercer @ The Citadel	-12.6	151.5	13%	70–54	✓
Pittsburgh @ North Carolina	+14.3	144.1	90%	65–79	✓
East Carolina @ Rice	+5.6	147.6	69%	85–75	✗
Army @ American University	+10.3	150.0	83%	63–75	✓
Presbyterian @ UNC Asheville	+6.8	133.8	73%	58–57	✗
High Point @ Gardner-Webb	-27.6	164.0	1%	112–87	✓
Florida State @ Virginia Tech	+8.1	159.9	77%	92–69	✗
SMU @ Syracuse	-3.1	162.2	39%	78–79	✗
North Dakota State @ North Dakota	-7.3	152.6	25%	83–66	✓
Western Michigan @ Eastern Michigan	+8.1	147.3	77%	76–62	✗
Kent State @ Ball State	-8.5	146.8	22%	75–68	✓
Wagner @ Stonehill	+1.1	136.4	54%	68–57	✗
Mercyhurst @ Saint Francis	-4.8	140.0	33%	94–79	✓
Central Connecticut @ Fairleigh Dickinson	-0.8	141.0	47%	63–57	✓
Bryant @ Vermont	+13.0	137.4	88%	63–90	✓
Elon @ William & Mary	+8.8	170.6	79%	81–78	✗
West Georgia @ Central Arkansas	+13.5	153.9	89%	62–79	✓
Stetson @ Florida Gulf Coast	+11.0	154.1	84%	76–78	✓
Liberty @ UTEP	-7.7	139.2	24%	73–64	✓
Louisiana Tech @ Florida International	+5.7	145.2	70%	64–77	✓
Charleston Southern @ Radford	+2.3	168.1	58%	80–90	✓
Villanova @ Creighton	-4.1	145.1	35%	80–69	✓
Kentucky @ Florida	+9.2	152.3	80%	83–92	✓
Penn State @ Oregon	+4.6	150.7	66%	72–83	✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Longwood	+3.4	148.6	62%	75–82	✓
Marquette @ Xavier	+3.5	158.5	63%	88–96	✓
NJIT @ Maine	-0.3	130.6	49%	67–58	✓
UL Monroe @ Texas State	+13.5	151.2	89%	84–95	✓
South Alabama @ Arkansas State	+7.2	152.6	74%	92–88	✗
Southern Utah @ UT Arlington	+12.1	143.2	86%	78–73	✗
Delaware @ Missouri State	+8.2	137.9	77%	76–67	✗
Florida A&M @ Jackson State	-1.4	149.0	45%	60–80	✗
Georgia State @ Old Dominion	+5.0	146.8	68%	55–78	✓
Georgia @ Oklahoma	-3.0	174.4	39%	78–94	✗
Tennessee State @ Morehead State	-0.8	156.4	47%	86–94	✗
Kansas State @ Houston	+20.7	148.4	97%	64–78	✓
Colorado @ BYU	+14.9	168.0	91%	86–90	✓
Louisville @ Baylor	-9.0	166.4	21%	82–71	✓
Wyoming @ Colorado State	+2.1	142.9	58%	68–79	✓
Duquesne @ St. Bonaventure	+1.1	162.1	54%	78–73	✗
Stanford @ Wake Forest	+4.2	154.1	65%	63–68	✓
Miami @ NC State	+5.8	161.9	70%	77–76	✗
UAlbany @ Binghamton	-4.8	143.2	33%	77–74	✓
Hofstra @ UNC Wilmington	+2.4	140.0	59%	66–70	✓
App State @ James Madison	-0.4	134.7	49%	58–69	✗
Portland State @ Northern Colorado	+1.5	150.8	55%	65–77	✓
North Florida @ Jacksonville	+5.6	157.4	69%	56–63	✓
Lipscomb @ Queens University	+0.9	169.3	53%	81–87	✓
Tarleton State @ Abilene Christian	-0.5	142.9	48%	59–73	✗
Delaware State @ Norfolk State	+11.3	132.1	85%	58–75	✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Alabama State	+1.3	157.2	55%	61–79	✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Alcorn State	-7.7	151.1	24%	55–57	✗
Lamar @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi	+2.9	133.2	60%	63–76	✓
SE Louisiana @ Northwestern State	+1.6	134.2	56%	66–69	✓
New Orleans @ Houston Christian	-2.1	154.5	43%	60–61	✗
UT Martin @ SIU Edwardsville	-0.2	122.1	49%	81–76	✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Lindenwood	+2.9	156.2	60%	73–61	✗
Little Rock @ Eastern Illinois	+1.8	134.6	56%	72–78	✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Howard	+11.1	130.1	84%	53–79	✓
Purdue @ Iowa	-0.9	143.5	47%	78–57	✓
Lehigh @ Lafayette	+0.7	146.3	53%	78–69	✗
Loyola Marymount @ Pepperdine	-5.6	141.3	30%	89–90	✗
Mississippi Valley State @ Alabama A&M	+17.3	139.1	94%	65–72	✓
Grand Canyon @ San José State	-10.1	138.2	18%	94–79	✓
Coppin State @ North Carolina Central	+12.1	149.2	87%	58–56	✗
Air Force @ Fresno State	+19.4	134.7	96%	63–93	✓
Toledo @ Bowling Green	+5.1	151.3	68%	70–80	✓
Northern Illinois @ Central Michigan	+2.8	145.2	60%	46–88	✓
Wofford @ UNC Greensboro	-3.1	159.2	39%	89–99	✗
Western Carolina @ Chattanooga	-0.5	153.3	48%	81–76	✓
Long Beach State @ UC Davis	+7.0	152.8	74%	54–71	✓
Nicholls @ Incarnate Word	+2.8	152.0	60%	91–83	✗
Idaho State @ Idaho	+5.2	148.1	68%	69–99	✓
Weber State @ Eastern Washington	+1.6	164.7	56%	66–84	✓
Tennessee Tech @ Southern Indiana	+0.7	142.4	53%	82–74	✗
Sam Houston @ Kennesaw State	-2.1	168.6	42%	83–79	✓
New Mexico State @ Jacksonville State	+0.6	138.4	52%	79–70	✗
Grambling @ Texas Southern	-0.7	144.6	47%	79–82	✗
Southern @ Prairie View A&M	-0.3	166.8	49%	87–82	✓
Stephen F. Austin @ UT Rio Grande Valley	-1.5	141.2	45%	66–57	✓
Bellarmine @ Austin Peay	+11.0	156.3	84%	70–90	✓
VCU @ Richmond	-5.8	159.8	30%	78–67	✓
West Virginia @ UCF	+3.1	143.1	61%	74–67	✗
Brown @ Dartmouth	+6.5	142.5	72%	79–76	✗
Columbia @ Princeton	+0.0	141.0	50%	75–65	✗
Cornell @ Pennsylvania	+1.1	178.2	54%	76–82	✓
McNeese @ East Texas A&M	-12.6	143.7	13%	97–54	✓
LSU @ Tennessee	+11.0	150.2	84%	63–73	✓
Texas Tech @ Arizona	+9.9	156.4	82%	78–75	✗
Yale @ Harvard	-4.5	145.6	34%	76–75	✓
Mississippi State @ Ole Miss	+5.0	145.3	68%	90–78	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.