Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Under |
| Money | BAY +270 LOU -340 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LOU +11 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | LOU -9.1 (-1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.3 (-12.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -7.7 (-3.3) | 156.5 (-3.5) | 22% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LOU -6.3 (-4.7) | 157.9 (-4.9) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -7.6 (-3.4) | 158.5 (-5.5) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -8.4 (-2.6) | 157.9 (-4.9) | 26% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 11-7 |
| Home | 11-6 | 15-2 |
| Away | 3-7 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.4 | 84.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.9 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 13.2 (#43) | 22.3 (#9) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.69 (#59) | 2.96 (#25) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.49 (#54) | 3.85 (#24) |
| RPI | 0.546 (#80) | 0.613 (#27) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 40.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.56 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.4% | 56.5% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 37.2% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 27.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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