Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | UNC -700 PITT +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +14 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -14.8 (-0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.3 (-0.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -13.3 (+0.7) | 140.3 (+3.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -13.1 (+0.9) | 141.9 (+2.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -12.8 (+1.2) | 141.1 (+2.9) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -13.1 (+0.9) | 141.1 (+2.9) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2025 | UNC 67 – 66 PITT |
| Jan 29, 2025 | PITT 73 – 65 UNC |
| Mar 15, 2024 | UNC 72 – 65 PITT |
| Jan 3, 2024 | UNC 70 – 57 PITT |
| Feb 2, 2023 | PITT 65 – 64 UNC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-9 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 5-13 |
| Home | 18-0 | 8-10 |
| Away | 4-6 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.7 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 71.8 |
| Massey | 17.0 (#26) | 5.1 (#103) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.22 (#20) | 0.20 (#148) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.79 (#25) | 0.39 (#136) |
| RPI | 0.650 (#7) | 0.497 (#189) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 39.2 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.77 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 13.7% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 34.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.8% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.1% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
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