Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -4.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | PITT +158 UNC -190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PITT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +13 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | PITT -2.0 (-15.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.6 (-28.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PITT -1.2 (-14.2) | 154.1 (-27.1) | 50% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PITT -2.7 (-15.7) | 149.7 (-22.7) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PITT -1.6 (-14.6) | 149.1 (-22.1) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PITT -2.2 (-15.2) | 152.1 (-25.1) | 54% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | UNC 79 – 65 PITT |
| Feb 8, 2025 | UNC 67 – 66 PITT |
| Jan 29, 2025 | PITT 73 – 65 UNC |
| Mar 15, 2024 | UNC 72 – 65 PITT |
| Feb 2, 2023 | PITT 65 – 64 UNC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PITT | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 29-8 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 17-3 |
| Home | 13-5 | 14-1 |
| Away | 7-4 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 7-5 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 81.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 12.4 (#35) | 14.9 (#18) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.09 (#88) | 2.22 (#29) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.60 (#80) | 3.35 (#26) |
| RPI | 0.561 (#82) | 0.608 (#29) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PITT | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 42.2 | 38.4 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.54 | 1.41 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 13.8% |
| ORB% | 34.7% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 32.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.8% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 78.6% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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