Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | UNC -240 PITT +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +1 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -3.2 (-2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.2 (-28.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -3.6 (-2.6) | 153.2 (-20.2) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -4.1 (-3.1) | 152.4 (-19.4) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -3.2 (-2.2) | 154.5 (-21.5) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -3.7 (-2.7) | 153.8 (-20.8) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | UNC 79 – 65 PITT |
| Jan 29, 2025 | PITT 73 – 65 UNC |
| Mar 15, 2024 | UNC 72 – 65 PITT |
| Jan 3, 2024 | UNC 70 – 57 PITT |
| Feb 2, 2023 | PITT 65 – 64 UNC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-14 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 8-12 |
| Home | 12-3 | 13-4 |
| Away | 6-6 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 5-5 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.7 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.7 | 70.8 |
| Massey | 13.2 (#38) | 13.1 (#41) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.96 (#49) | 1.87 (#51) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.55 (#48) | 2.21 (#57) |
| RPI | 0.609 (#29) | 0.580 (#49) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 53.9% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 28.3% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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