Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | UNC -450 PITT +310 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PITT +1 | 129 | Lost |
| Massey | UNC -7.7 (-8.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.9 (-20.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -6.0 (-7.0) | 145.9 (-16.9) | 74% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -7.7 (-8.7) | 144.9 (-15.9) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -6.7 (-7.7) | 146.0 (-17.0) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -6.2 (-7.2) | 145.2 (-16.2) | 74% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | UNC 79 – 65 PITT |
| Feb 8, 2025 | UNC 67 – 66 PITT |
| Jan 29, 2025 | PITT 73 – 65 UNC |
| Mar 15, 2024 | UNC 72 – 65 PITT |
| Jan 3, 2024 | UNC 70 – 57 PITT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 14-6 |
| Home | 12-3 | 14-3 |
| Away | 4-7 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 75.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 69.7 |
| Massey | 11.3 (#34) | 7.2 (#72) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.20 (#30) | 1.68 (#53) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.82 (#23) | 2.09 (#53) |
| RPI | 0.614 (#21) | 0.570 (#57) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 39.1 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 30.8% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 76.1% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.5% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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