I just keep on rolling along with the grace of the Lord above. "Heartbreaker" - Led Zeppelin
Atlantic Coast Conference · Dean E. Smith Center · February 2, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread UNC -8.5 Away covered
O/U 146.5 Under
Money UNC -450 / PITT +310
Model Predictions
Spread Total UNC win
Actual PITT +1 129 Lost
Massey UNC -7.7 (-8.7)
Massey Totals 149.9 (-20.9)
Bradley-Terry 76%
Weighted B-T 82%
Baseline Plus ML UNC -6.0 (-7.0) 145.9 (-16.9) 74%
Efficiency Plus ML UNC -7.7 (-8.7) 144.9 (-15.9) 77%
Baseline Tuned ML UNC -6.7 (-7.7) 146.0 (-17.0) 75%
Baseline ML UNC -6.2 (-7.2) 145.2 (-16.2) 74%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 14, 2026 UNC 7965 PITT
Feb 8, 2025 UNC 6766 PITT
Jan 29, 2025 PITT 7365 UNC
Mar 15, 2024 UNC 7265 PITT
Jan 3, 2024 UNC 7057 PITT

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UNC PITT
Overall 20-13 24-12
Conference 11-9 14-6
Home 12-3 14-3
Away 4-7 7-5
Neutral 4-3 3-4
Last 5 4-1 4-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 76.2 75.1
Avg Pts Against 70.9 69.7
Massey 11.3 (#34) 7.2 (#72)
Bradley-Terry 2.20 (#30) 1.68 (#53)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.82 (#23) 2.09 (#53)
RPI 0.614 (#21) 0.570 (#57)
Shooting & Four Factors UNC PITT
FG% 45.4% 44.6%
3PT% 31.8% 35.0%
REB / G 39.1 37.4
OREB / G 10.4 10.3
AST / TO 1.14 1.20
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.0% 52.5%
TOV% 15.6% 17.7%
ORB% 29.3% 29.9%
FT Rate 30.8% 22.8%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.4% 48.0%
Opp TOV% 16.0% 17.2%
DRB% 76.1% 73.1%
Opp FT Rate 16.5% 19.2%

Game Analysis

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