Betting Lines
| Spread | VT -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | VT -198 FSU +164 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FSU +23 | 161 | Lost |
| Massey | VT -7.8 (-30.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.8 (+1.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VT -8.1 (-31.1) | 154.5 (+6.5) | 77% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VT -6.5 (-29.5) | 158.7 (+2.3) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VT -7.7 (-30.7) | 148.4 (+12.6) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | VT -7.3 (-30.3) | 149.6 (+11.4) | 76% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2025 | VT 76 – 66 FSU |
| Mar 13, 2024 | FSU 86 – 76 VT |
| Feb 14, 2024 | VT 83 – 75 FSU |
| Jan 6, 2024 | FSU 77 – 74 VT |
| Mar 4, 2023 | VT 82 – 60 FSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VT | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 10-8 |
| Home | 14-3 | 11-6 |
| Away | 3-7 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 80.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 77.9 |
| Massey | 11.1 (#50) | 6.3 (#91) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.17 (#46) | 0.89 (#93) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.94 (#44) | 0.94 (#97) |
| RPI | 0.597 (#36) | 0.523 (#125) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VT | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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