Betting Lines
| Spread | VT -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | VT -250 FSU +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VT +8 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | VT -5.2 (+2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.4 (+9.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VT -5.3 (+2.7) | 149.5 (+8.5) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VT -6.4 (+1.6) | 149.3 (+8.7) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VT -5.5 (+2.5) | 147.1 (+10.9) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VT -5.5 (+2.5) | 148.8 (+9.2) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | FSU 92 – 69 VT |
| Jan 30, 2025 | VT 76 – 66 FSU |
| Mar 13, 2024 | FSU 86 – 76 VT |
| Jan 6, 2024 | FSU 77 – 74 VT |
| Mar 4, 2023 | VT 82 – 60 FSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VT | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 10-10 |
| Home | 15-2 | 10-7 |
| Away | 2-10 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 76.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 76.3 |
| Massey | 9.0 (#64) | 7.2 (#83) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.40 (#71) | 1.28 (#82) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.84 (#66) | 1.60 (#84) |
| RPI | 0.557 (#82) | 0.560 (#79) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VT | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.2% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 29.6% |
Game Analysis
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