Betting Lines
| Spread | FSU -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | FSU -650 VT +470 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VT +10 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | FSU -12.5 (-22.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.3 (-1.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FSU -9.6 (-19.6) | 139.9 (+2.1) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FSU -10.5 (-20.5) | 141.2 (+0.8) | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FSU -10.7 (-20.7) | 142.5 (-0.5) | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FSU -11.2 (-21.2) | 141.1 (+0.9) | 86% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | FSU 92 – 69 VT |
| Mar 13, 2024 | FSU 86 – 76 VT |
| Feb 14, 2024 | VT 83 – 75 FSU |
| Jan 6, 2024 | FSU 77 – 74 VT |
| Mar 4, 2023 | VT 82 – 60 FSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FSU | VT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 8-12 |
| Home | 11-5 | 8-9 |
| Away | 2-9 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 69.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 73.2 |
| Massey | 9.0 (#66) | -0.1 (#166) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.27 (#75) | -0.19 (#192) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.60 (#80) | -0.34 (#198) |
| RPI | 0.560 (#73) | 0.475 (#218) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FSU | VT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 33.5% |
| FT Rate | 28.7% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.1% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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