Betting Lines
| Spread | VT -1.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | FSU -110 VT -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FSU +3 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | FSU -0.7 (+2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.8 (+8.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FSU -0.2 (+2.8) | 142.5 (+8.5) | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FSU -0.0 (+3.0) | 138.6 (+12.4) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FSU -0.3 (+2.7) | 139.3 (+11.7) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FSU -0.9 (+2.1) | 140.3 (+10.7) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | FSU 92 – 69 VT |
| Jan 30, 2025 | VT 76 – 66 FSU |
| Mar 13, 2024 | FSU 86 – 76 VT |
| Feb 14, 2024 | VT 83 – 75 FSU |
| Mar 4, 2023 | VT 82 – 60 FSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FSU | VT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 10-10 |
| Home | 10-7 | 15-2 |
| Away | 4-7 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.5 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.3 | 71.0 |
| Massey | 3.9 (#107) | 7.5 (#71) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.35 (#141) | 1.66 (#58) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.67 (#131) | 2.06 (#59) |
| RPI | 0.541 (#108) | 0.577 (#60) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FSU | VT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 31.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.9% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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