Betting Lines
| Spread | VT -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | VT -213 FSU +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FSU +10 | 162 | Lost |
| Massey | VT -2.8 (-12.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.9 (+11.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VT -2.3 (-12.3) | 149.0 (+13.0) | 59% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VT -3.5 (-13.5) | 147.2 (+14.8) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VT -2.5 (-12.5) | 148.9 (+13.1) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | VT -2.9 (-12.9) | 150.3 (+11.7) | 62% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | FSU 92 – 69 VT |
| Jan 30, 2025 | VT 76 – 66 FSU |
| Feb 14, 2024 | VT 83 – 75 FSU |
| Jan 6, 2024 | FSU 77 – 74 VT |
| Mar 4, 2023 | VT 82 – 60 FSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VT | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 10-10 |
| Home | 15-2 | 10-7 |
| Away | 2-10 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 76.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 76.3 |
| Massey | 9.8 (#54) | 7.0 (#84) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.55 (#66) | 1.20 (#85) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.01 (#59) | 1.51 (#88) |
| RPI | 0.563 (#64) | 0.546 (#94) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VT | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 28.7% |
Game Analysis
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