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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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35–17 on winners spread MAE 9.0 52 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Valparaiso @ Illinois State	+9.1	136.5	80%	64–86	✓
Murray State @ Indiana State	-4.8	169.1	33%	74–72	✓
Marist @ Merrimack	+0.1	125.1	50%	56–81	✓
Winthrop @ Gardner-Webb	-21.4	159.5	3%	103–85	✓
UNC Asheville @ Longwood	-0.9	143.0	47%	79–74	✓
Presbyterian @ Charleston Southern	+5.6	149.0	70%	67–84	✓
High Point @ South Carolina Upstate	-11.9	157.9	14%	95–70	✓
Robert Morris @ Cleveland State	-4.2	161.2	35%	85–68	✓
Youngstown State @ Oakland	+7.3	161.0	75%	86–82	✗
Detroit Mercy @ Wright State	+10.8	154.2	84%	77–74	✗
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Green Bay	+3.4	148.7	62%	59–76	✓
Central Connecticut @ New Haven	-1.9	129.7	43%	81–76	✓
Stonehill @ Chicago State	+0.5	134.7	52%	55–68	✓
Long Island University @ Wagner	-5.4	149.8	31%	67–57	✓
Mercyhurst @ Le Moyne	+3.3	138.8	62%	57–58	✓
Saint Francis @ Fairleigh Dickinson	+7.6	148.3	75%	59–66	✓
Stony Brook @ Towson	+5.0	129.1	67%	57–69	✓
Hofstra @ Charleston	-2.1	148.4	43%	66–62	✓
Monmouth @ Drexel	+2.8	130.8	60%	93–73	✗
William & Mary @ Northeastern	-5.6	169.0	30%	94–67	✓
Elon @ UNC Wilmington	+8.4	155.3	78%	54–65	✓
Georgia State @ James Madison	+6.2	145.2	71%	79–81	✓
Delaware @ Florida International	+9.8	151.3	81%	68–66	✗
UIC @ Drake	+0.6	146.8	52%	80–70	✗
Tennessee Tech @ Morehead State	+5.1	149.5	68%	66–73	✓
Evansville @ Southern Illinois	+14.3	143.0	90%	60–86	✓
Kansas City @ Oral Roberts	+6.7	146.6	73%	60–69	✓
St. Thomas-Minnesota @ Omaha	-6.0	154.5	29%	94–98	✗
Coastal Carolina @ Louisiana	-2.3	131.0	42%	69–65	✓
Sacramento State @ Northern Colorado	+9.1	168.1	80%	79–95	✓
Portland State @ Northern Arizona	-8.4	137.2	22%	77–68	✓
South Alabama @ Southern Miss	+1.5	140.5	55%	84–78	✗
Southeast Missouri State @ SIU Edwardsville	+1.2	136.7	54%	56–74	✓
Little Rock @ Western Illinois	-5.1	140.9	32%	77–58	✓
UT Martin @ Lindenwood	-0.4	140.4	48%	74–75	✗
California Baptist @ Southern Utah	-7.8	146.2	24%	83–66	✓
Louisiana Tech @ Missouri State	+5.8	130.8	70%	79–78	✗
Northern Iowa @ Belmont	+4.9	134.9	67%	86–91	✓
Oregon State @ San Francisco	+9.0	144.6	79%	90–63	✗
Memphis @ North Texas	-2.2	131.2	42%	69–76	✗
South Dakota State @ Denver	-0.0	165.0	50%	61–79	✗
Weber State @ Idaho	+4.5	157.5	66%	83–72	✗
Idaho State @ Eastern Washington	+2.9	154.3	60%	75–88	✓
Tennessee State @ Southern Indiana	-6.1	149.9	29%	73–71	✓
Utah Valley @ Utah Tech	-6.5	152.6	28%	77–81	✗
UT Arlington @ Abilene Christian	-3.2	130.6	39%	63–67	✗
Hawai'i @ Cal State Bakersfield	-15.0	147.7	9%	89–74	✓
UC Santa Barbara @ UC Riverside	-7.3	148.8	25%	76–68	✓
Cal State Fullerton @ Long Beach State	-0.0	161.0	50%	86–82	✓
UC Irvine @ Cal Poly	-6.0	156.7	29%	73–79	✗
UC Davis @ UC San Diego	+6.3	149.0	72%	51–68	✓
Manhattan @ Niagara	+1.1	142.9	54%	76–69	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.