Betting Lines
| Spread | CCU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | UL +100 CCU -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CCU +4 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | CCU -2.1 (-1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.7 (+3.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CCU -2.5 (-1.5) | 134.4 (-0.4) | 40% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CCU -3.0 (-1.0) | 135.0 (-1.0) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CCU -2.2 (-1.8) | 135.1 (-1.1) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CCU -1.9 (-2.1) | 135.2 (-1.2) | 38% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2025 | UL 71 – 68 CCU |
| Mar 7, 2024 | UL 80 – 66 CCU |
| Jan 7, 2024 | UL 85 – 77 CCU |
| Dec 30, 2022 | CCU 77 – 76 UL |
| Jan 1, 2022 | UL 65 – 64 CCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UL | CCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-22 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 11-7 |
| Home | 7-8 | 8-5 |
| Away | 3-13 | 10-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.7 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 73.5 |
| Massey | -10.0 (#309) | -4.9 (#246) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.25 (#281) | -0.11 (#180) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.77 (#289) | -0.46 (#202) |
| RPI | 0.450 (#268) | 0.507 (#164) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UL | CCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 30.3 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 26.3% |
| FT Rate | 18.5% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 46.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 12.5% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.8% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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